THANKSGIVING AM: Refresh for chart and more analysis It’s theatrical forever for Disney/Marvel Studios’ Black Panther: Wakanda Forever which is coming in ahead of yesterday afternoon’s estimates with $10M, but not so much for the studio’s animated movie Strange World which did $4.2M yesterday. This will translate per industry estimates into a 3-day and 5 day of $43M and $55M-$60M for Wakanda Forever, and a disastrous 3 and 5 day of $15.8M and $20M-$23M for Strange World which cost a reported $135M. That’s not the worst for a Disney animated, particularly over Thanksgiving, but it’s damn close: Their $140M original animation movie Treasure Planet was in freefall back in 2003 with a 3-day of $12M and $16.5M. One former Disney exec once told me, “They’re very good at making the best worst case decision” and in the scenario of Strange World, that’s sending it to Disney+ by the holidays. Even though the pic is tanking in theaters, that type of big screen release will at least give it some mojo in ancillaries. Everybody remember that as theatrical tries to finds its footing, especially among these adult titles which aren’t finding an audience — either that or else it’s a case of niche cannibalizing itself.
Speaking of adult titles, while Sony and Black Label Media’s Devotion per public box office reporting is seeing $1.8M from yesterday at 3,405 theaters, and $10.2M for the 5-day and 3-day of $6.1M, however, industry sources tell us this AM that Netflix’s sneak preview of release of Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery is killing off all adult competition, and it’s only in 638 theaters. We hear Wednesday was very close to $2M, with the 3-day and 5 day projected out to $8.5M and $10M-$12.3M, which is amazing for adult counterprogramming right now. We’ll update you if Netflix reports numbers. If the Rian Johnson directed, Ram Bergman produced whodunnit sequel arrives at the high end, that’s a massive $19,2K theater average and proof adults still want to go to the movies. As we told you previously, particularly as many of these films post single digits, they’re too niche, hence their lower ticket sales. Any development executive wrecking their head over what works right now on the big screen among older adults, go splash some cold water on your face and remember last year’s starry crime caper package from Ridley Scott, House of Gucci with Lady Gaga, Adam Driver, Jared Leto and Al Pacino. That movie, when there were more concerns about Covid, posted a $14.4M 3-day and $22M 5-day. Just a refresher on the type of films which get adults out.
Knives Out 2 is burying such adult fare as ($1.1M Wednesday, $5M second weekend and $7M 5-day), Bones and All ($921K Wed, $2.4M 3-day and $3.9M 5-day) and Universal’s expansion of Amblin’s The Fabelmans which did $400K at 638 theaters for a forecasted $2.2M 3-day and $3M 5-day. On the high-end, the Steven Spielberg directed movie will wind up with $4,7K theater average.
And get this iSpot shows that Netflix spent less than the majors to open Glass Onion with $4.3M in TV spots to Disney’s $16M on Strange World, Sony’s $14.8M on Devotion, Searchlight’s $10.8M on The Menu and Uni’s $8.5M on The Fabelmans,
RelishMix reports that Knives Out 2 had a massive social media reach of 307.7M, a near 3x increase from the first one which opened to $26.7M and $41.1M back in 2018. Among those socially activated on the cast there’s Kate Hudson at 17.7M, Dave Bautista at 15.4M, Edward Norton at 4.1M, Janelle Monáe at 7.4M while Daniel Craig is still off the grid.
Says RelishMix about the buzz, “Convo on Glass Onion runs positive with mixed curiosity on how it will stack up to the success of version one. Fans speculate from materials, whodunnit in the cast with chatter about the ‘smoothest transition for a 007 ever’ — as well as support for Dave Bautista’s tattoos and adoration for Ed Norton, Kate Hudson and Janelle Monáe. Fans are threading about the sliding streaming windows and openly debating whether to wait or go — while wondering about how surprising the reveals in the story will play.”
Strange World received four stars on Comscore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak and a B CinemaScore. Men over 25 were dominant at 33% but hated it at 66%. Women over 25 were next in attendance at 24% but giving it a 90% grade, then men under 25 at 23% and 83% grade and women under 25 at 21% and giving the pic its best grade at 92%. Diversity demos were 47% Caucasian, 25% Asian, 22% Hispanic and 6% Black. Not a flashy recommend at 55%. RelishMix noticed that Strange World awareness levels on social were 22% below norms for family animated films at 172M. The campaign on Disney’s social runs on the cross-promotion momentum from Disney’s social network at 107.7M and Disney Animations at 26.2M across Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Instagram, and TikTok, including cast at 217.2M with total views at 38.2M across all channels.
Devotion gets 5 stars on PostTrak, 90% score. Diversity demos were 61% Caucasian, 19% Black, 11% Hispanic and Latino, and 6% Asian. Men over 25 were large at 49% (88% grade), women over 25 at 33% (95% grade), men under 25 at 12% (76%) and women under 25 at 6% (100%).
Bones and All gets a B Cinemascore and 3 stars on PostTrak. The Timothee Chalmet fans were the majority on this film with women under 25 at 32% but a 73% grade. Men over 25 were next at 25% but with a low 58% grade, then women over 25 at 23% and 76% and men under 25 at 19% and an 80% grade.
While ticket sales will decline today due to the holiday by -16%, they’ll be up by tomorrow on Black Friday, a big day for moviegoing, by +93%.
MORE….
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Early figures and take the 3-day and 5-day with a grain of salt as projections are always off at this point in a Thanksgiving stretch. Disney/Marvel Studios’ Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is leading today with $9.5M, even with yesterday and a $50M Wednesday through Sunday outlook. However, Strange World, as we thought, it falling below its $30M projection with $23M-$27M. Including previews, today looks like around $4.5M to $5M for that animated movie. Encanto last year had an opening day of $7.6M. Apparently, Strange World closed the gap on early matinees with Encanto, and hopefully that momentum continues.
Sony and Black Label Media’s Devotion at 3,405 theaters is seeing $1.7M today with $9M-$10M for the 5-day, ranking third. Searchlight’s The Menu has an estimated $1M for Wednesday for $6M-$8M over 5-days.
At this minute, I’m hearing erratic reports about Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. Some have it ahead of all the frosh adult counterprogramming in presales, while others do not.
WEDNESDAY AM: It’s not like people weren’t going to the cinema yesterday as we head toward Thanksgiving: Disney/Marvel Studios’ Black Panther: Wakanda Forever made $9.5M at 4,258 theaters on Tuesday propelling the Ryan Coogler-directed sequel past the the three century mark with $303.7M, making it the 7th film to pass that threshold this year after Top Gun: Maverick, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Jurassic World: Dominion, Minions: The Rise of Gru, The Batman and Thor: Love and Thunder.
However, there really wasn’t any excitement last night to see previews of Disney Animation’s Strange World, which as we told you doesn’t look so good for the holiday stretch. Off previews that started at 6pm, Strange World only did $800K, which is arguably the lowest for a Disney Thanksgiving theatrical release in the era of movie theaters holding early previews. That’s close to half of what Encanto did in its Tuesday preview a year ago with $1.5M, and that’s when there were more pandemic fears among moviegoers. A $30M+ five-day start for Strange World at 4,174 theaters is what we figured, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if it’s lower as the weekend belongs for a third time to Wakanda Forever, which is now apt to do $50M+ over Wednesday to Sunday. Audience score on Strange World is currently low on Rotten Tomatoes at 62%, but only from 50 reviews.
Wakanda Forever‘s Tuesday, +36% over Monday, reps its third highest weekday (outside Friday) after its first Monday and Tuesday which respectively did $11.1M and $12.6M.
Searchlight’s The Menu was second yesterday with $1.3M at 3,228 venues, +26% over Monday for a running five-day total of $11.3M at 3,211. While A24’s Midsommar –a good genre comp here for Menu– took a different trajectory, opening on a Wednesday in July, the Mark Mylod directed Anya Taylor Joy movie here is 4% of the Ari Aster movie in its first five days.
Fathom Events and Angel Studios’ The Chosen: Season 3 posted $1.02M, -19% from Monday for a running total of $11M.
New Line/DC’s Black Adam was fourth on Tuesday with $690K at 3,372 locations, +17% for a running total of $158.3M. The Dwayne Johnson movie is available to own digital for $24.99 or for 48-hour rental via PVOD for $19.99. On Jan. 3, the movie hits DVD, Blu-Ray and 4K.
In 5th was Universal’s George Clooney and Julia Roberts romantic comedy, Ticket to Paradise, which made $490K at 3,268 theaters, +22% from Monday for a running total of $62.4M. The pic is already available to watch on PVOD.
The Sony distributed Black Label Media war movie Devotion made $615K at 2,982 theaters which started showtimes at 6PM. That figure is above the Thursday previews figure for Focus Features’ BlacKKKlansman which did $600K before seeing a $3.6M Friday, and $10.8M opening, however, that was a very different time of year, that being late summer pre-pandemic 2018. The Jonathan Majors-Glen Powell movie is expected to see $7M-$8M over five days.
United Artists Releasing’s wide expansion previews of Bones and All did $345K as it heads to 2,700 theatres today. Through five days, apart from previews, the Luca Guadagnino directed genre pic has made $146,7K from five theaters in NYC and LA. A single digits five-day take is expected.
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