The Thanksgiving box office is off to a decidedly worrisome start, with overall revenue paling in comparison to other years.
For Disney, it appears to be a case of feast or famine. While Marvel Studios’ Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will stay atop the box office chart for the third weekend in a row with a hearty gross of $60 million to $62 million for the five days (Wednesday through Sunday), Disney Animation’s Strange World is bombing.
Wakanda Forever led Wednesday with $10 million from 4,174 theaters for a domestic total of $313.7 million, followed by $8.1 million on Thursday.
There was no feasting on Thanksgiving for Strange World, which posted a Wednesday opening day gross of $4.2 million from 4,174 sites after earning a lukewarm B CinemaScore. On Thanksgiving, the pic earned $2.5 million, driving down already muted projections.
At this pace, Strange World is looking at a five-day opening of $20 million to $24 million, Disney Animation’s worst opening for a Thanksgiving title in modern times. (Disney Animation titles, such as the Frozen franchise, usually dominate the holiday.)
Last year, Encanto posted a five-day gross of $40.6 million after earning $7.8 million on Wednesday despite challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. And in 2019, Frozen 2 grossed a record $125 million for the five days.
Strange World opens just days after Bob Iger’s return as CEO of the Walt Disney Co. after the shocking ouster of Bob Chapek.
A slew of other new films are also competing for their place at the Thanksgiving table, but many are failing to appeal to mainstream audiences.
The big mystery is Rian Johnson’s Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, featuring a cast led by Daniel Craig. Netflix isn’t expected to report box office grosses in keeping with its long-standing practice to keep numbers hidden from view. However, rival Hollywood studios believe the sequel, playing in nearly 638 theaters in the U.S. and 60 locations in Canada, could earn $10 million to $12 million domestically for the five days, putting it ahead of other adult-skewing films.
Glass Onion is getting an unprecedented release, and is the first of the streamer’s titles to play in all three of the country’s largest chains — AMC Theatres, Regal Cinemas and Cinemark Theatres.
Distribution executives still have their way of collecting data directly from exhibition contacts, and two sources tell The Hollywood Reporter that Johnson’s sequel likely earned $2 million on Wednesday and $1.9 million on Thursday.
While the sequel is opening to far less than the $41.4 million grossed by Johnson’s Knives Out over Thanksgiving 2019 — the first film had the advantage of receiving a traditional theatrical release from Lionsgate in more than 3,800 locations — it is beating several other new Thanksgiving entries catering to adults. Netflix is pitching Glass Onion as a one-week special preview.
On Wednesday, Sony’s Korean War drama Devotion, about two naval fighter pilots, grossed $1.8 million from 3,228 sites for a projected 5-day gross in the $9.3 million range. The film, which grossed another $1.2 million on Thursday, stars Top Gun: Maverick’s Glen Powell and Jonathan Majors.
Searchlight’s epicurean horror-comedy The Menu, which is heading into its second weekend, placed No. 4 Wednesday with around $1.1 million from 3,228 locations for a solid five-day haul of $8 million or so.
Luca Guadagnino’s awards contender Bones and All — about two young lovers and cannibals played by Taylor Russell and Timothée Chalamet who embark on a road trip — grossed an estimated $921,000 Wednesday as it expanded into a total of 2,727 cinemas after launching in select theaters last weekend. The specialty movie is anticipating a muted five-day gross of $4 million. It earned $436,000 on Thursday.
Steven Spielberg’s semi-autobiographical The Fabelmans, a key awards player, is rolling out more slowly in hopes of emulating the success of Oscar-winning film Green Book. Spielberg’s latest film opened in New York and Los Angeles over the Nov. 11-13 weekend before expanding into 637 locations on Wednesday. From Universal and Amblin, the pic earned an estimated $400,000 Wednesday and $470,000 on Thursday for a projected five-day gross of $3 million to $3.5 million.
Holdover Black Adam is also in the mix with an anticipated five-day gross of $4 million or so from 2,842 theaters. It arrived on digital release on Nov. 22.
Studios stress that projections could shift again once they have Black Friday grosses.
Nov. 24, 10:30 a.m.: Updated with revised unofficial projections for Glass Onion.
Nov. 25, 8:30 a.m.: Updated with revised unofficial projections for Glass Onion.
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