If tracking is correct, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom may only swim to $37 million to $43 million in its domestic box office debut over the four-day Christmas weekend. That sum would pale in comparison to the first installment, released five years ago, and would also trail the recent $46.1 opening of box office debacle The Marvels, from rival Marvel Studios.
At the same time, Aquaman 2 is almost assured of winning what is shaping up to be a sluggish Christmas weekend. The sequel, reteaming director James Wan and star Jason Momoa, caps a year in which the superhero genre has largely struggled at the box office.
A slew of other films open Friday opposite The Lost Kingdom, followed by several more on Christmas Day, but overall revenue isn’t looking especially merry or bright. (Plus, it’s never ideal when the holiday falls on a Monday, since Christmas Eve sees a dip in moviegoing and this year it falls on a Sunday, a prime moviegoing day.)
In 2018, Aquaman‘s official three-day opening over the Dec. 21-23 weekend was $67.9 million. And through Christmas Day — a Tuesday — its domestic tally was a rousing $105.4 million (that included several million in special sneak peeks the previous weekend). The Warner Bros. and DC movie went on to earn $335.1 million domestically and $1.15 billion globally. The sequel, which has been beset by delays and reshoots, isn’t likely to swim anywhere near that level and marks a decidedly low-key end to this era of DC, before executives James Gunn and Peter Safran reboot the universe with 2025’s Superman: Legacy.
Warners has no fewer than three year-end holiday event movies — Aquaman, Wonka and The Color Purple — a daring feat (and never mind that two are musicals).
The Timothée Chalamet-led Wonka opened last week to a promising $39 million, and is tracking to come in at No. 2 over Christmas weekend with $20 million to $23 million. Some are betting on Wonka to ultimately be the top year-end holiday player.
In yet another test of the appetite for theatrical animated fare, and especially original stories, Illumination and Universal open Migration on Friday. Tracking suggests the family pic will post a four-day gross of $14 million to $15 million. In November, Disney Animation was skewered when Wish opened to $31.6 million over the five-day Thanksgiving corridor, including $19.7 million for the weekend proper.
The two films are both original, although it is tough to compare their openings because the final verdict for Migration won’t be rendered until New Year’s weekend once box office analysts comb over weekday numbers (there’s no more lucrative stretch of the moviegoing year than the week between Christmas and New Year’s). Over Christmas 2016, Illumination’s Sing, also an original story, earned a pleasing $75.5 million in its first six days; that number climbed to $166.5 million through Jan. 1, a Sunday. And last year, DreamWorks Animation and Universal’s Puss in Boots: The Last Wish grossed only $18 million after opening Dec. 21, but had a strong multiple and earned $185.3 million domestically and $481 globally (of course, it was based on known IP).
Mirgration should come in No. 3 this weekend, followed by Columbia’s romantic-comedy Anyone but You with $6 to $8 million for the four days (Friday-Monday). The pic stars Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell. Depending on how things turn out, it could find itself in a close race with A24’s wrestling family drama The Iron Claw, starring Zac Efron. Elsewhere, there are number of awards contenders expanding timed to the holiday, including MGM/Amazon’s American Fiction.
Overall, the action intensifies Christmas Day, when another round of films open to take advantage of strong weekday business. That’s led by the Oprah and Steven Spielberg-produced The Color Purple. The film adaptation of the Broadway musical is tracking to do a sizable $10 million to $11 million on its first day. (Traffic at theaters picks up in earnest after presents are unwrapped, and as friends and families look for something to do.)
Also on Dec. 25, MGM/Amazon open the George Clooney-directed The Boys in the Boat, followed by Michael Mann’s Ferrari. Tracking shows the two films each posting an opening-day gross of $2 million to $3 million.
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