SATURDAY AM: Disney’s The Little Mermaid is staying on its great course, maintaining that $38M Friday (which includes previews) for what is shaping up to be an estimated $104M 3-day and a 4-day between $120M-$130M. At that upper part of that threshold, the pic is the third best opening for a movie over Memorial Day weekend.
Audience exits are great with an A CinemaScore (same grade as Disney’s live-action Cinderella, Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin and The Lion King). Screen Engine/Comscore’s PostTrak notched 91% positive and a 76% definite recommend while kids under 12 were over the moon at 92% positive and a 69% definite recommend. Natch, heavy female leaning at 68% with 61% between 18-34 and the largest demo being 25-34 year olds at 35%. Diversity demos strong across the board with 35% Black, 25% Latino and Hispanic, 26% Caucasian and 11% Asian.
Most vibrant lands for Ariel were the East, South & South Central.
All the PLFs went to her, however, Imax auditoriums were split between Little Mermaid and Fast X getting later showtimes. Combined, PLFs and Imax rep 26% of the current ongoing weekend’s gross with 3D delivering 14%. Biggest theaters were the El Capitan in Los Angeles at a huge $177K Friday gross.
Next, there could be a war for number 2 between Universal’s Fast X and Disney’s Guardians of the Galaxy gang, though many show the former right now having the upper hand with a $22.8M second weekend, -66%, 4-day of $28.5M, and running 11-day total of $113.4M, which would be 7% behind the same frame as 2021’s F9.
And as we told you yesterday — the weekend’s counterprogramming looks awful. The lesson learned here is that if you’re going to do any kind of counterprogramming and want to make it work, it has to look better and more eventized than what you see on streaming (read the perfect storm June weekend last summer of Elvis and Black Phone). No, comedies aren’t broken. Both Machine and About My Father have their inherent handicaps.
The first movie based on a stand-up’s routine, Legendary/Screen Gems’s The Machine starring Bert Kreischer is aimed at blue collar crowds, while Lionsgate’s About My Father starring big marquee comedian Sebastian Maniscalco is aimed more at families and upscale crowds. Meaning the stand-up projects aren’t technically cannibalizing each other; they just look like something you see on Netflix. Nice try by both studios to grab an audience when everyone’s heading to the movies this weekend, however, moviegoers already know what they want to see and these titles, along with Briarcliff and Open Road’s Kandahar aren’t demanding their attention.
Machine did $2.2M on Friday at 2,409 theaters for what’s looking like a $5.2M 3-day, $6.2M 4-day. PostTrak wasn’t strong here with 78% positive, a 60% recommend and dudes skewing 69% with 63% between 25-44 and the largest quad 36% for the 25-34 audience. Caucasian showed up at 62%, with 18% Latino and Hispanic, 8% Black and 13% Asian/other. Pic was soft everywhere, however, the Midwest is where Kreischer played as the pic delivered over 17% of its business there vs a norm of 11%. AMC Burbank is the top theater in the country with $7K so far. Eeks.
The Open Road/Briarcliff release of Gerard Butler’s Kandahar posted $920K yesterday for what’s looking to be a $2.5M 3-day and 4-day of $3.1M at 2,105 theaters. Like Liam Neeson and Nic Cage, Butler just has a plethora of these meat and potato action films that they’re no longer marquee draws; theatrical is used simply to spur the downstream market. B+ CinemaScore, PostTrak at 75% and a 36% recommend with 61% guys showing up and 59% between 18-34, and 25-34 year olds the biggest quad at 34%. Diversity demos were 59% Caucasian, 12% Black, 11% Latino and Hispanic, and 17% Asian/other. Kandahar played soft everywhere but best in the West and South. The Regal Fresno saw the best gross on Friday at around $3K.
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FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON: As we told you, once a Disney princess film gets momentum, well, it’s wandering free at the box office. Such is the case for The Little Mermaid, which after $10.3M in previews is seeing $38M for Friday, which will result in a $105M 3-day, and a $125M 4-day opening at 4,320 theaters per sources.
Again, a great result for a predominantly female-skewing tentpole; it’s the smaller movies aimed at women that the marketplace is still on the fence about. Little Mermaid‘s success here with female moviegoers also paves the way for another big summer pic: Warner Bros’ Barbie at the end of July.
Among the top openings for Memorial Day weekend: Top Gun: Maverick ($160.5M last year), Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End ($153M, 2007), but then there’s also Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull which never had its Thursday opening day of $25M rolled into its four day, so the Friday-Monday take for that film is $126.9M, with a 5-day Thursday-Monday haul of $152M back in 2008. At that pecking order, Little Mermaid is bound to be the third best 4-day Memorial Day debut. Hands down, Little Mermaid buries Aladdin‘s 4-day start over the holiday of $116.8M to become the best for a live-action take on a Disney toon.
That preview figure of $10.3M is rolled into Friday’s figure and also counts $850K from the special Wednesday fan showtimes. Overall, Ariel’s preview number is the seventh-best ever for a PG- or G-rated title.
After Little Mermaid, May tentpole holdovers Universal’s Fast X and Disney’s Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3 give the holiday weekend a spine. However, the counterprogramming– Legendary/Screen Gems’ The Machine, Lionsgate’s Sebastian Maniscalco comedy About My Father and Open Road/Briarcliff’s Gerard Butler movie, Kandahar, are for nothing. We’ll make sense of these pics’ fates as they make their way through the weekend. See numbers below.
1) Little Mermaid (Dis) 4,320 theaters, Fri $38M, 3-day $105M, 4-day $125M/Wk 1
2) Fast X (Uni) 4,088 (+42) theaters, Fri $6M (-79%), 3-day $21.8M (-67%), 4-day $27.2M, Total $112.1M/Wk 2 (read the review)
3) Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3 (Dis) 3,940 (-510) theaters, Fri $5.4M (-36%) 3-day $20.6M (-36%) 4-day $26.6M, Total $306M/Wk 4 (read the review)
James Gunn’s MCU swan song will cross the $300M mark in its 24th day of theatrical release on Sunday. GOTG 2 hit that number in 17 days. The first Guardians took 44 days to the three-century mark stateside.
4) The Super Mario Bros Movie (Uni) 3,148 (-392) theaters, Fri $1.65M (-29%) 3-day $6.2M (-35%), 4-day $8.2M, Total $560.8M/Wk 8 (read the review)
5) The Machine (Leg/Sony) 2,409 theaters, Fri $2.4M 3-day $6.3M, 4-day $7.8M/Wk 1
The is right where Sony was expecting this service deal to come in. Critics are asking themselves why they sat through it at 33%, but comedian Bert Kreischer has a fanbase at 96%. (Read the review.)
6) About My Father (LG) 2,464 theaters, Fri $1.3M 3-day $3.8M 4-day $4.7M/ Wk 1
Currently this is slightly under what Lionsgate was expecting. One would think the Sebastian Maniscalco crowd would be showing up. Critics don’t get it at 30% Rotten, audiences do get the joke at 75%. (Read the review)
7) Kandahar (OR/Briar) 2,105 theaters, Fri $550K 3-day $1.64M 4-day $2M /Wk 1
The meat-and-potatoes action movie is play for guys with the plan to get this pic straight into its ancillaries, where it will make bank. Remember this happened with the Lionsgate/STX Guy Ritchie title Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre (which opened to $3.1M in March and ended at $6.4M after 21 days in theaters). Critics are at 43% Rotten, audiences better at 75%. (Read the review.)
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8) You Hurt My Feelings (A24) 912 theaters, Fri $300K 3-day $890K 4-day $1.1M /Wk 1
The upscale comedy starring Julia Louis-Dreyfus and directed by Nicole Holofcener generated lots of laughs at its Sundance premiere. Rotten Tomatoes critics are 95% certified fresh on it, but RT audiences not so much at 57%. (Read the review.)
EXCLUSIVE, late Thursday PM: Sources are telling us that Disney’s Rob Marshall-directed The Little Mermaid is singing some high notes tonight of $10M+ in previews. Should that figure exceed $10.8M it will rep the 6th highest preview performance among PG and G rated titles in motion picture history. Tracking pegged the Halle Bailey movie at a $120M 4-day start over Memorial Day.
Remember, that preview cash is made up of Wednesday 6PM fan screenings at 500 premium screen theaters and early shows which began at 3PM today.
Even more impressive, Little Mermaid‘s preview figure bests that of Disney’s live action take of animated toon, Aladdin, from Memorial Day weekend 2019; that Will Smith pic doing $7M before grossing $31.3M on its first Friday for a $116.8M 4-day. Little Mermaid also easily beats the $2.3M previews (8PM start) of 2015’s Cinderella, which had a $23M first day, $67.8M start. However, Little Mermaid is swimming slower than Disney’s live action Beauty and the Beast from 2017 which did $16.3M, for a $63.7M Friday and $174.7M opening.
Female skewing movies, like Twilight for instance, often get a bad rep for being front-loaded. However, once a mass-appealing Disney princess movie fires up from its opening, it doesn’t let go. Beauty and the Beast only eased around -2% between its Thursday previews/Friday and Saturday business. Frozen 2 was +19% over a similar period while Aladdin, which starred Princess Jasmine, only eased -4% between its Thursday night/Friday and Saturday.
Though critics on Little Mermaid waned to 68% fresh, audiences on Rotten Tomatoes are very happy at 95%
We’re just getting started here.
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